Based on Liverpool’s recent form it seems fair to consider whether this is the beginning of a long journey down the table. Are we watching the beginnings of Leeds and Newcastle again? There are a number of trends that would indicate it’s worth considering.
First, the depth of talent isn’t there. Gerrard and Torres are among the best, after that Carragher is good and Mascherano can be but better players are needed.
Second, other teams have gained on the big 4. Tottenham, Man City and Villa threaten the Big 4 and teams like Wigan, Sunderland and the slow starting Everton are capable of trouble. Even the recently promoted teams have the ability to cause headaches.
Third, their Champion’s League form has been subpar. With three games left they can grab the second spot but not based on their post-Alonso form. Wins over Debrecen and Fiorentina are essential at a minimum but with the next match in Lyon this will be a difficult task.
Fourth, ownership is unable to give Rafa the transfer money he needs. And if even if there were will it be enough for this season?
Fifth, Rafa’s purchasing track record is not good – although Torres was a great one. Also Benitez doesn’t seem able to improve the players he buys. That said, Rafa’s contract is so big that he won’t be fired by current ownership.
Now, if Liverpool finish outside the top 4 the Champion’s League money is gone. If they are eliminated from the Champions League group stage this year, well that’s more money gone. Money is what this team needs and that’s been known for some time now. Then you’d have to wonder how long before Barcelona or Real Madrid pitch to bring El Nino home. Would that be irresistible to both player and owners given the potential circumstances? There may even be an audacious bid for Gerrard – he wouldn’t be the first England international to make a switch to a club like Real Madrid.
So while it seems far fetched, if you look back to Leeds and Newcastle you’ll remember teams in Champions League that spent big to stay but didn’t buy well, failed to make Champions League in subsequent seasons, dropped down the table, sold or lost out on good players, bought lesser replacements and often for big money, and before you know it your out of the top tier.
Those are some details and they can vary from club to club but the underlying similarities are questionable ownership and management decisions combined with lofty ambitions and limited resources. Now I recognize that Everton, of course, managed to stay in the top flight after an uneventful Champion’s League campaign but Everton’ spending was restrained and productive with a manager who improves players and seems to get more out of them – two qualities Rafa has not demonstrated at Liverpool. While this might be an oversimplification, the similarities are there making it an interesting, if not sad, comparison.
There are two factors that might be Liverpool’s saving grace, even if they drop out of Champions League in the group stages and finish 5th or lower in England. One, ownership recognizes it’s limits and seems to be trying to address it. Two, the fan support for Liverpool is tremendous. Put together I expect a billionaire white knight is around the corner. If not, Liverpool FC fans might have some worrying ahead of them.
